This work offers a summary of the book “INEVITABLE SURPRISES: Thinking Ahead in a Time of Turbulence” by Peter Schwartz.
Most “surprises” that will hit the economic world in the next 25 years are in fact predictable, and inevitable. Every savvy businesspeople should be aware of these changes and their driving forces, because they will provide commercial opportunities, and pitfalls that they can plan to avoid. Peter Schwartz argues that there are 7 inevitable surprises on the horizon: extension of lifespan; migration patterns will change; the global economy will be mostly in uptrend; nations will separate into large alliances; geopolitical conflicts will affect the economy; technological advancements will be made; environmental concerns will come to the fore.
Business should therefore plan to make and market products to an older demographic, and be prepared to hire older people – who after all have more experience. Countries like the US will continue to experience high levels of immigration: businesses must decide how best to respond to that, along with geopolitical forces such as continuing global terrorism. Ignoring these inevitable surprises could have dire consequences for your business: you should put a high premium on learning, and set up early warning or trigger systems so you know when the surprise is looming. Inevitable Surprises is a must read for everyone interested in their long-term strategy.